February Coffee Outlook: East Africa Updates

East Africa updates from Ethiopia and Kenya, as well as a look at harvest challenges in Central America.

The harvest has come to a close in Ethiopia and Kenya, and coffee from the early part of the season will be shipping soon. Tom traveled to both countries in December, visiting many stations we’ve been a longtime buyer of, as well as those new to us and our list. While we are still in the stages of finalizing our selections for this year, the general consensus is that quality is very good this year, and we don’t anticipate there being any issues securing our normal volumes.

Below is a short summary of the 2024/25 harvest, and where things stand in our coffee selections. We’ll also touch on harvest challenges facing farmers in Central America, highlight incoming coffees arriving this month, and provide a brief look at how we anticipate the skyrocketing coffee market will impact prices on list.

Skip to the transit updates.

Here’s a quick roundup of where things stand in Ethiopia:

• The harvest season was plentiful in Ethiopia this year, especially in the Southern regions, like Guji, Sidama, and Yirga Cheffe.
• This is partly due to coffee’s biennial cycle – alternating years of high and low production – this being a high “on cycle” year.
• The timing of sustained rains also helped support the heavy flowering, and ripening coffee fruit.
• Western Ethiopia was an exception and experienced about a 10% reduction in crop size vs last year. This includes Jimma, where many of the coop coffees we buy are located, like Nano Challa, Duromina, and Geta Bore.
• Like the rest of the coffee growing world, prices for cherry are trending upward, though not quite keeping pace with the Commodity market price. At least at this moment.
• Most of the coffee has moved from the rural growing areas to warehouses in Addis, which means this shipping season is about to get underway. It also means we are working to finalize contracts for the year.
• We have one more trip planned later this month (February) that is focused around cupping coffee samples to make our final approvals.
• It’s important to keep in mind that we won’t see any new coffees for several months still. The good news is we still have a lot of really nice, fresh tasting Ethiopia’s on the site now, which are really a bargain in today’s market.

Kenya may be experiencing a smaller harvest, but quality is very good.

• The general consensus is that overall crop numbers are down by about 10-15%, but that the ratio of top grades is higher than average (AA, AB, Peaberry, and C).
• Weather played a big part in the lower harvest with unseasonal, heavy rains leading to low flowering. Ironically, those same rains helped create conditions for supporting cherry development.
• Our hope is that this year’s logistics will be an improvement over last, though a lot of this depends on availability of 20 foot shipping containers, and timing of our shipments.
• Last year’s woes also had to do with regulatory changes implemented by the Kenyan government that left many private millers without licenses to operate at the start of the harvest.
• This year, much of that responsibility was shifted to cooperative societies and farmers unions which should help alleviate some of that bottleneck.
• Our goal is to ship coffee early in order to help mitigate any unforeseen logistical issues that may arise as a result of regulatory changes, or port congestion.
• We plan to finalize most of our contracts on our visit later this month in order to get the coffee moving quickly.
• Like Ethiopia, we aren’t likely to see coffee from the new crop until much closer to Summer. In the meantime, have a look at our current Kenya offer list here.

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Learn more about coffee processing in our recent video:

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Farmers in Central America have faced extreme weather and labor shortages

Farmers in Central America have faced their own set of challenges, with late rains topping the list. Typically, the wet season starts around April/May, but this year it didn’t start until June. It was also a La Niña year, and heavy rains knocked many flowers and cherries from the trees, leading to lower harvest numbers in most countries.

Additionally, there’s an ongoing crunch on labor, with many would-be coffee pickers seeking better paying jobs and permanent employment opportunities. This makes it difficult to get coffee off the trees when ripe, in some cases resulting in less first quality coffee. While final numbers are still unknown, early estimates coming from our partners in producing countries are a 10% decrease, or more, over last year’s harvest.

Exactly how this low-harvest year plays out for us has yet to be seen, but we remain optimistic that our long-term buying relationships will help us get the coffees we want. We should start seeing our first Central America offers later this month, followed by origin visits in March.

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Incoming February arrivals

February turned out to be a pretty big month with new coffees arriving from Indonesia, Burundi, Brazil, and Honduras. The first quarter is typically a slow time for incoming coffee, so four in a month is a pretty big deal. We’ve been seeing a 2 week turnaround from when coffees clear the Port of Oakland to when they are finally delivered, which means that unfortunately, some won’t actually be be available until March.

Our Indonesian coffees were the first to clear, and a we’ve already managed to list a few coffees on our site. This container was filled with a diverse mix of origins and process methods, including washed, wet hulled, and anaerobic honeys from the islands of Flores, Sulawesi, and Java. There’s even a small lot of honey process Robusta from Java that is going up at the end of the month.

This container of Burundi is the first of two for the year, and includes coffees from sites like Yandaro, Masha, and Kibingo. The incoming Honduras lots are from Beneficio San Vicente, who has been our main source for Honduran microlots. Harvest in the highland area where these coffees are from comes quite late for Central America, and are always the last to ship. This box holds a mix of variety separations like Pacas, and Parainema from many of the farms we’ve been looking to for coffee the last few years.

And finally, our Brazil arrivals are from one of our newer partners in Santa Rita do Sapucaí, Agrorigem. We’re excited about the coffees from Agrorigem, run by 3rd generation coffee farmer, Daniele Alkmin, who also is president of the local women’s coffee association “Mulheres Empreendedoras do Cafe.” Dani’s made it her mission to promote the coffees of Santa Rita to the Specialty Coffee world, and we think the lots we purchased are a good representation of the range of profiles found in this region. We featured Agrorigem in a fairly recent post that you can read here.

I’ve chosen to include the Brazil, Burundi, and Honduras arrivals in our “Incoming Coffees” list below with a status of “ARRIVED.” You’ll see some of the Indonesian coffees listed in our “Upcoming Coffees” list for February and March.

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A note on coffee prices for 2025

“Record prices,” “Uncharted territory,” “Historic highs” … These are some of the superlatives being thrown around in headlines to describe the surge in coffee prices. They are warranted, given the fact that the base commodity price of Arabica has nearly doubled in the last year, reaching record highs of above $4.00 per pound.

The underlying issue is a global coffee shortage that is projected to stretch through the 2025 and 2026 harvest years. Though this alone doesn’t account for the extreme swings, it’s what set the ball in motion. Prices have soared even higher in some countries, with regional issues like weather events, late harvest, lack of labor, further impacting those numbers.

High prices are normally an incentive to sell. However, when they roll upwards with seemingly no end in sight, many farmers hold their coffee hoping to capture peak pricing. This may not consider the tipping point of what buyers are willing to pay. As demand softens, prices start to come down too. We are seeing that now to some degree, but we expect higher prices to be the norm for some time.

The bottom line is, the high cost of coffee will impact our prices in the near term. Coffees we are contracting now will likely be priced $1.00 more in order to keep pace with the market (in terms of the 1 lb. price on Sweet Maria’s). If we see a significant dip in the market, our prices will follow suit. When and if that will happen is anyone’s guess, but we will be sure to post updates in future Green Coffee Outlooks.

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Upcoming Coffees February/March

Below is a list of upcoming green coffees currently on the schedule to be added to our website in February and March.

February Upcoming Coffees

Coffee	Bags
Brazil Dry Process Fazenda Sertao	20
Brazil Dry Process Santa Ines	49
Costa Rica El Danto Typica Variety	6
Ethiopia Guji Benti Nenka	60
Ethiopia Dry Process Yirga Cheffe Konga	100
India Yercaud Balmadi Estate	25
Java Sunda Honey Garut Robusta	5
Java Sunda Anaerobic Honey Puncak Sirna	50
Kenya Kiambu Fram Farm Peaberry	2
Peru San Ignacio Ihuamaca	48
Sulawesi Wet Hulled Luwu Seko	20

March Upcoming Coffees (so far)

Coffee	Bags
Costa Rica Red Honey Tarrazu El Ruby	20
Ethiopia Dry Process Uraga Raro Boda	80
Flores Bajawa Tanta Reti	10
Guatemala Xinabajul San Pedro Necta	28
Guatemala Patzun Finca Las Camelias	37
Guatemala Xinabajul Sandra Hidalgo	17
Java Sunda Wet Hulled Surili	25
Java Sunda Wet Process Siki Alit	38
Kenya Nyeri Gichichi AA	19
Kenya Othaya Gura AA	16
Peru Jaén Rosalina Perez	24
Nicaragua Dry Process El Suyatal	12
Rwanda Nyamasheke Peaberry	40
Sulawesi Dry Process Desa Topidi	10
Zambia Anaerobic Natural Kateshi Estate	20

February/March Outlook:

Incoming coffees currently on the water: February onward

Please keep in mind that names may change when we list the coffee on our website. Location status of “In Transit” are also a bit of a wild card, as logistical disruptions are out of our control! You also may notice some of the coffees from last month’s list have disappeared. These have likely arrived in the US, and await being added to our launch schedule. Thanks for your patience!

African Incoming Coffees

Coffees	Bags	ETA
Burundi Kayanza Kibingo Station	50	Arrived
Burundi Kayanza Gakenke	50	Arrived
Burundi Kabarore Commune Yandaro	50	Arrived
Burundi Dry Process Gakenke	20	Arrived
Burundi Dry Process Masha	20	Arrived
Burundi Honey Process Gakenke	15	Arrived
Burundi Honey Process Masha	30	Arrived
Burundi Gatara Masha	85	Arrived
Zambia Kateshi Estate Anaerobic	20	ETA 2/25
Zambia Kateshi Estate AA	15	ETA 2/25
Tanzania Mbozi Lukululu Peaberry	20	ETA 3/5
Burundi Kiganda Murambi	60	ETA 4/6
Burundi Dry Process Murambi	31	ETA 4/6
Burundi Masenga	45	ETA 4/6
Burundi Rugembe	17	ETA 4/6
Burundi Dry Process Kinama	41	ETA 4/6
Burundi Dry Process Kigina 23	11	ETA 4/6
Burundi Dry Process Kigina 25	24	ETA 4/6
Burundi Migoti	47	ETA 4/6
Burundi Monge Murambi Hill	45	ETA 4/6
Yemen Moka Matari	150	ETA 4/7
Yemen Sharqui Haraz	75	ETA 4/7
Yemen Moka Sanani	75	ETA 4/7
Yemen Moka Haimi	50	ETA 4/7
Yemen Al Qafr Hawari	50	ETA 4/7
Yemen Moka Peaberry	50	ETA 4/7
Yemen Special Selections	50	ETA 4/7

South America Incoming Coffees

Coffees	Bags	ETA
Brazil Sítio da Pedra	59	Arrived
Brazil Sítio Três Barras	24	Arrived
Brazil Condado São José	37	Arrived
Brazil Fazenda Doña Maria Christina	10	Arrived
Brazil Stio Serra dos Borges	24	Arrived
Brazil Doña Maria Dorotéia	33	Arrived
Brazil São José Farm	58	Arrived
Brazil Carlos Henrique Santa Rita de Cássia	35	Arrived
Brazil São Joaquim Farm	40	Arrived
Brazil Canastra Luis Otavio	35	ETA 3/19
Brazil Reinaldo Gomes da Cunha	35	ETA 3/19
Brazil Amarildo José Borges	32	ETA 3/19
Brazil Flávio Caixeta Nunes	32	ETA 3/19
Brazil Dalila Vasconcelos	7	ETA 3/19
Brazil Winicius Baquião Dutra	10	ETA 3/19
Brazil Flávio Caixeta Nunes	3	ETA 3/19
Brazil Canastra Luis Otavio	45	ETA 3/19
Brazil Amarildo José Borges	32	ETA 3/19
Brazil Renalto Alves Anselmo	40	ETA 3/19
Brazil Dalila Vasconcelos dos Santos	30	ETA 3/19
Brazil Canastra Luis Otavio	19	ETA 3/19
Colombia Edward Sandoval Wush Wush	4	ETA 4/1
Colombia San Antonio Doña Rosa	8	ETA 4/1
Colombia Inzá Maximino Cuchimbe	5	ETA 4/1
Colombia El Virgel Carlos Emilio Chiroso	12	ETA 4/1
Colombia Edward Sandoval Gesha	10	ETA 4/1
Colombia Pitalito Evelio Pink Bourbon	10	ETA 4/1
Colombia Pitalito Evelio Caturra	14	ETA 4/1
Colombia Leonardo Henao Gesha	20	ETA 4/1
Colombia Cajamarca Alexander Mancilla	11	ETA 4/1
Colombia China Alta Geraldine Buitrago	6	ETA 4/1
Colombia China Alta Reinaldo Parra	12	ETA 4/1
Colombia Inzá Vereda San Antonio	15	ETA 4/1
Colombia Inzá Vereda Belén	22	ETA 4/1
Colombia Inzá Rio Páez	24	ETA 4/1
Colombia Inzá Veredas Vecinas	57	ETA 4/1
Colombia Urrao La Despensa Chiroso	15	ETA 4/1
Colombia Productores de Pitalito	40	ETA 4/1

Central America Incoming Coffees

Coffees	Bags	ETA
Honduras Edwin Ever Sabillon Parainema	17	Arrived
Honduras Edwin Ever Sabillon Natural	7	Arrived
Honduras Andres Fernandez Parainema	7	Arrived
Honduras Wilmer Dubon Pacas	5	Arrived
Honduras Teodosa Moreno Parainema	11	Arrived
Honduras Sara Chinchilla Blend	9	Arrived
Honduras Anibal Erazo Pacas	5	Arrived
Honduras Maria Isabel Fernandez Parainmena	8	Arrived

Indonesia & SE Asia & Oceania Incoming Coffees

Coffees	Bags	ETA
Sumatra Lintong Sigumpar Village	30	ETA TBD
Sumatra Dry Process Bebesen Aulia	20	ETA TBD
Sumatra Wet Process Kerinci Pendekar	10	ETA TBD
Sumatra Honey Process Kerinci Pendekar	10	ETA TBD
Sumatra Wet Hulled Pegasing Syahurna	30	ETA TBD
Sumatra Giling Basah Gayo Pegasing	30	ETA TBD
Sulawesi Dry Process Napu Robusta	5	ETA TBD
Sumatra Giling Basah Gegarang	30	ETA TBD
Sumatra Wet Hulled Ribang Gayo	30	ETA TBD
Sumatra Wet Process Ribang Gayo	30	ETA TBD
Sumatra Dry Process Ribang Gayo	20	ETA TBD
Sumatra Wet Hulled Kerinci Pendekar	30	ETA TBD
Sulalwesi Honey Enrekang Angin Angin	10	ETA TBD
Sumatra Dry Process Kerinci Pendekar	20	ETA TBD
Sumatra Giling Basah Bebesen Aulia	20	ETA TBD
Laos Paksong Catigua	12	ETA TBD
Laos Paksong Gesha	12	ETA TBD
Laos Paksong Typica	12	ETA TBD