January Green Coffee Outlook: Harvest Updates in Africa and Central America

In this Green Coffee Outlook edition, we will take a look at how harvest is coming along in parts of Africa and Central America where our 2024 coffee buying begins.

The latter part of the year is one of our slower times for incoming coffees. Be that as it may, activity in our warehouse is anything but ‘slow’, as our focus shifts to managing order fulfillment and keeping a well-stocked website during the holiday rush.

With the main event now behind us, we take a good look at our inventory, what we have, and what we’ll need to round out our list well into 2024. The timing of all this couldn’t be better, as it coincides with the harvest seasons in many African and Central American countries, parts of the coffee growing world that make up the lion’s share of our annual volume.

Buying coffee isn’t an exact science, and there’s always some guesswork involved. We have sales reports, and of course current inventory numbers, to look to for guidance. But the fact of the matter is, the coffee we buy over the next two months won’t arrive in the states until Spring at best, some even as late as the Summer, which can make calculating volumes feel a little like reading the tea leaves.

The timing of harvests in different producing origins adds another layer of unpredictability. Harvest begins when coffee cherries are ripe, and the rates at which that happens is tied to weather patterns that change from year to year. This is part of the reason we don’t publish a harvest schedule graphic, because it would need to be updated every year!

With harvest well underway in many parts of the Global South, here’s a cursory look at how things are shaping up in some of the origins where our buying begins in 2024. I’m including harvest and shipping months, the latter being when we expect our coffee to ship. The actual shipping window for these origins is a lot bigger than what’s cited below.

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Ethiopia –

• Harvest Months: October – February
• Arrival Months: May – September

Early price ideas are trending lower than last year, due in part to an excess of coffee not having been sold from the 22/23 harvest coupled with a slightly larger 23/24 harvest. This is a double-edged sword, as on the one hand, the high prices of last season led to low demand, which is part of the reason there is so much carry over volume from 22/23. But lower prices come at a time of double digit inflation and loan scarcity, meaning cash for buying coffee is harder to come by for exporters, and ultimately less money for farmers.

Commercial grades bought on a differential basis take the biggest hit. The top grades that we buy aren’t as closely tied to the market, and remain relatively high actually.

The harvest reports we’ve received show that the crop came early this year, and fast. In southern regions like Yirga Cheffe, large volumes of cherryEither a flavor in the coffee, or referring to the fruit of the coffee tree, which somewhat resembles a red cherry.: Either a flavor in the coffee, or... ripened at the same time, which for us means being presented with a pretty full selection on our visits in early 2024.

In terms of coffees we plan to have again this year, we will return to many of the same suppliers in he hopes of repeat business. However, quality is never guaranteed, so while we put contracts in place at the start of the season, the coffees we fill those with will depend on how things taste at the cuppingCupping is a method of tasting coffee by steeping grounds in separate cups for discrete amounts of ground coffee, to reveal good flavors and defects to their fullest.... table. Our first visit is planned for next month, so there’s a good chance we’ll be able to offer some specifics in our next Green CoffeeGreen coffee refers to the processed seed of the coffee tree fruit. Coffee is a flowering shrub that produces fruit. The seeds of the fruit are processed, roasted,... Outlook.

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Guatemala –

• Harvest Months: November – April
• Arrival Months: May – September

Harvest started in late November, and production is looking to be on par with last year. This is good news for us, as we hope to maintain volumes in the areas we currently buy coffee from, like Antigua, Chimaltenango, and Huehuetenango. Early reports from our export partners are generally positive, with very nice cherry selection coming into their mills, and samples from the first pickings showing promise at the cupping table.

There continues to be a shortage of seasonal workers to pick coffee, which can be said for all of Central America (and beyond). Low wage manual work like this is being left behind for the hope of better jobs in nearby cities and abroad. Emigrating is often the only ladder of opportunity out of the coffee fields for many pickers.

Nevertheless, farmers are faced with a real issue of keeping an important part of their workforce staffed, without which they are left to find other means, or coffee goes unpicked. The positive side of this is increased wages to attract locals for seasonal work, but an ever shrinking workforce means there is a lot of competition to keep coffee flowing from trees to mills.

It’s looking like we will see our first Guatemalan samples in February. Coffees from the higher altitude zones comes later, hence the longer wait. We hope to see the first new cropRefers to fresh shipments of green coffee within the first month or two of the earliest arrivals ... not quite the same as Current Crop, which means the... coffees by May, but the bulk won’t likely be available until next Summer.

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El Salvador

• Harvest Months: November – March
• Arrival Months: March – June

The coffees we buy from El Salvador are usually our first Central American lots to arrive. Part of the reason is that the harvest season comes early, and is a little shorter than some other coffee countries in Central America. But honestly, a big part of the expedience is that the exporter we work in Ahuachapán, Finca Miravalles, just seems to get things moving FAST!

Getting coffee early means a lot to us as there’s obviously a competitive advantage to being one of the first with new crop. But it also means a shorter gap between running out of coffee from the previous year and the new arrival, which is a good thing for everyone!

This year, Miravalles plan to produce a dry processDry process coffee is a method for taking the fruit from the tree to an exportable green bean. The whole intact coffee cherry is dried in the sun... BourbonA coffee cultivar; a cross between Typica and Bourbon, originally grown in Brazil: Mundo Novo is a commercial coffee cultivar; a natural hybrid between "Sumatra" and Red Bourbon,... lot just for us. They’re trying out a new method that involves piling whole cherry in a large cone shape to fermentAs an aroma or flavor in coffee, ferment is a defect taste, resulting from bad processing or other factors. Ferment is the sour, often vinegar-like, that results from... for up to 2 days before spreading out onto the raised bedsRaised beds, also referred to as "african-style beds" are elevated beds used for drying coffee when dry-processing.: Raised beds, also referred to as "african-style beds" are elevated beds... to finishSimilar to aftertaste, but it refers to the impression as the coffee leaves the palate. Aftertaste is the sensations gathered after the coffee has left the mouth. We... drying. We’ve been buying the natural from their other farm, Finca San Luis, and are look forward to tasting the results from this higher elevation region.

Talking with Luis Duarte who oversees harvest operations, other than a few dry weeks at the start of the season, the weather has been favorable, despite it being an El Niño year. The first cherries were picked at the end of November, and they are now well into the main part of the harvest and on track to have their first offer samples by late January. We are expecting more cultivarCultivar is a term used interchangeably with Varietal in the coffee trade to indicate plant material, although there are distinctions.: The naming of a cultivar should conform to... separations from Miravalles, as well as honeyIn coffee, honey-like sweetness is often found, but we use terms such as refined honey (highly filtered and processed) as opposed to raw honey rustic honey sweetness. This..., and dry process coffees from both farms

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Nicaragua

• Harvest Months: November – March
• Arrival Months: April – July

Though the harvest had a late start, all signs indicate volumes to be in line with last year’s numbers in Nicaragua. Talking with Olman Valladarez of Cafetalera Buenos Aires, the slow-to-start rainy season had little effect on the health of the trees in Dipilto region where his farms are located.

Cherries are maturing nicely, and the first picking has already started. Like all of Central America, he’s feeling the shortage of workers to pick coffee. Last year he told me that the #1 export from Nicaragua in 2022/23 was workers. For their part, Olman and his family have managed to keep many of the same families they employ by offering more than just competitive wages. In addition to housing and meals, they provide schooling for the children of coffee pickers in an adjacent building near the Buenos Aires farm, as well as medical insurance for workers who stay on for the whole year.

The harvest peak is expected to be fairly short this season, and Olman predicts that picking from the main part will be all but completed by early February. Coffee will continue to be harvested until March, but the quality of the later lots tends to be inconsistent since it’s a mix of what’s left on the trees.

We usually visit in late February/early March, when there is a wide selection available for cupping. It’s also ideal to taste the coffee with some rest after drying, though we do cup test fresh coffees all the time. Fresh coffees can taste “green”, medicinalMedicine-like, alcohol or chemical type flavor taint.: A defective flavor characterized by a penetrating medicine-like, alcohol or chemical type taint flavor. This type of defect usually comes from..., and be a little drying, all aspects that settle down with rest. With practice you can cup through that type of noise, but it’s always nice to be faced with a table of well-rested coffees when possible!

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Logistical Challenges and Expectations in 2024

2023 was a banner year for logistics when compared to the issues we faced during the COVID-19 lockdowns. The Oakland Port was once again our target destination for 90+% of last season’s shipments, with any exceptions made based on preference rather than desperation.

We prefer bringing coffee into Oakland for a few reasons. One, even in cases such as Africa, where there’s significant time savings when shipped the East Coast, much of that is lost to the time it takes to then transfer the coffee to the West Coast. But perhaps more importantly, there’s a real cost savings to avoiding intermodal transfers from the East Coast and Gulf. Shipping rates are not dropping, whether by rail or by road, so moving our coffees through Oakland helps keep costs and prices lower.

Like the rest of the world, we are currently monitoring the situation with shipping disruptions in the Red Sea due to drone attacks on container vessels by Houthi militants. Even though most of our shipments don’t use that lane, approximately one-third of global container ship cargo moves through that trade route, and re-routing those shipments has a major impact on port congestion, vessel availability, and cost.

Both CMA and and Maersk have signaled that they will resume service through the Red Sea, and a look at the Marine Traffic tracker shows several dozen shipping vessels currently passing through. We are still a few months away from any of our Ethiopia coffees shipping, and are optimistic that things will resume back to normal by then.

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Upcoming Coffees January & February

Below is a list of upcoming green coffees currently on the schedule to be added to our website for December and January. This list is still being updated:

January Outlook:

Coffee	Bags
BrazilBrazil is a coffee giant . As Frank Sinatra sang, "they grow an awful lot of coffee in Brazil".: Brazil is a coffee giant . As Frank Sinatra... Dry Process Doña Marta	30
Brazil Pulp NaturalPulp natural is a hybrid method of processing coffee to transform it from the tree fruit to a green bean, ready for export. Specifically, it involves the removal... Wania Maria	60
BurundiBurundi coffee bears resemblance to neighboring Rwanda, in both cup character, but also the culture surrounding coffee. Burundi is a small landlocked country at the crossroads of East... Honey ProcessThe honey process has nothing to do with honey other than the fact that they're both sticky! It's a term that became popularized in Costa Rica as another... Kibingo	50
ColombiaColombian coffee is highly marketed and widely available in the US. They have been largely successful at equating the name Colombian Coffee with "Good" Coffee. This is half-true.... Honey Aponte Hugo Agreda	14
Colombia Inzá Las Estrellas	11
Colombia Honey Los Naranjos Chiroso"Chiroso" is the name given to a unique variety of coffee rediscovered in Colombia in the early 2000's, and is still mostly limited to the country. Originally thought...	14
CongoKivu is the general name for East Congo (Kinshasa), covering a very broad geographical area, and the lake of the same name that divides them. It borders on... OrganicGrown without the use of artificial fertilizers, herbicides, etc.: Organic coffee has been grown according to organic farming techniques, typically without the use of artificial fertilizers. Some farms... Dry Process Kabare Katana	40
Costa RicaCosta Rican coffee is typically very clean, sweet, with lots of floral accents. hey are prized for their high notes: bright citrus or berry-like flavors in the acidity,... Yellow Honey La Union	40
El Salvador FincaSpanish 101: Finca is the Spanish word for farm. Sometimes the term Hacienda is used to imply an Estate, which would mean the farm has its own wet-mill.... Miravalles H1	20
Ethiopia Organic Gera Genji Challa	80
GuatemalaGuatemalan coffee is considered a top quality coffee producer in Central America. Due to our proximity to Guatemala, some of the nicest coffees from this origin come to... Finca Rosma MaragogypeMaragogype is a mutation of Typica coffee and was discovered in Brazil. The Maragogype is a large plant with big leaves, low production and very large fruits (and...	5
Guatemala Proyecto Xinabajul Axel Villatoro	20
HondurasHonduran coffee was absent from the top ranks of the Specialty market, but that has changed. It has all the environmental factors on its side: soil, altitude, climate.... Los Andes Doña Teodosa ParainemaParainema is a hybrid with some disease resistance developed in Honduras by IHCAFE (Instituto Hondureño del Café). It is related to Sarchimor, another disease-resisitant type. Both have arabica...	5
Keny Nyeri Kamoini AA	7
KenyaKenya is the East African powerhouse of the coffee world. Both in the cup, and the way they run their trade, everything is topnotch.: Kenya is the East... Nyeri Rukira PeaberryA peaberry is a green coffee "bean" that has a rounded form: Coffee is the dried seed from the fruit of a flowering tree - each fruit having...	8
Kenya Tetu Mungaria AB	6
Nicaragua MaracaturraAs the name indicates cross between large-bean Maragogype and Caturra cultivars. : As the name indicates cross between large-bean Maragogype and Caturra cultivars. It seems to be found... Los Medios	20
RwandaA Bourbon cultivar variant from Rwanda and Burundi. Bourbon coffees are named for the island in the India Ocean where French colonists grew it. Some history from the... Rulindo Tumba	80
SumatraIndonesians are available as a unique wet-hulled or dry-hulled (washed) coffees. Giling Basah is the name for the wet-hulling process in Bahasa language, and will have more body... Wet ProcessWet-processing starts by removing the outer skin of the coffee cherry with a machine called a pulper, then fermenting the remaining fruit (with green bean inside) in water... Ribang GayoGayo is ethnic group from the area of Aceh Sumatra around Lake Takengon. They use the name Gayo Coffee to market their production. The Acehnese are a different...	20
Sumatra Anaerobic Kerinci Cooperative	20
Sweet Maria’s 10 Speed Blend	n/a

February Outlook (so far – check back later this month for an update):

Coffee	Bags
Congo Organic Kivu Kalehe	20
Ethiopia Honey Process Dehab Mesfin Farm	3
Guatemala Huehuetenango Boqueroncito	75
Guatemala Antigua Finca Cabrejo Lot 2	15
Guatemala Chimaltenango Tecpán	37
Guatemala Proyecto Xinabajul Dos Villatoros	20
Kenya Kirinyaga Gikirima AB	40
Rwanda Karongi Gitesi	40

Incoming coffees currently on the water: January onward

Please keep in mind that the coffees on the Upcoming Coffee Outlook schedule with a location status of “In Transit” are still a bit of a wild card, and the month we have them listed under is based on the current shipping ETA, and subject to interruptions out of our control. Thanks for your patience!

African Incoming Coffees

Coffees	Bags	ETA
Burundi Kayanza Gahahe	40	ETA 1/18
Burundi Kayanza Gakenke	40	ETA 1/18
Burundi Kayanza Kibingo Station	40	ETA 1/18
Burundi Kayanza Nemba	40	ETA 1/18
Buruni Honey Process Masha	40	ETA 1/18
Burundi Dry Process Kibingo	60	ETA 1/18
Burundi Dry Process Gahahe	60	ETA 1/18
Burundi Dry Process Agahore	24	ETA 2/3
Burundi Dry Process Agahore	22	ETA 2/3
Burundi Dry Process Agahore	17	ETA 2/3
Burundi Kiganda Murambi	10	ETA 2/3
Burundi Dry Process Kiganda Murambi	25	ETA 2/3
Rwanda Rulindo Tumba	80	ARRIVED
Rwanda Kivu Kageyo	40	ARRIVED
Rwanda Nyamasheke Gitwe	54	ARRIVED
Rwanda Karongi Gitesi	40	ARRIVED
Rwanda Nyamasheke Mutovu	45	ARRIVED
Rwanda Kivu Kageyo PeaberryThe Spanish-language term for Peaberry is the same for "snail". See Peaberry for more information on the single bean fruit of the coffee tree. A peaberry is the...	30	ARRIVED
Rwanda Dry Process Kageyo	8	ARRIVED
Rwanda Honey Process Gitwe	20	ARRIVED
Rwanda Rubavu Rwinyoni	40	ARRIVED
Rwanda Ngororero	40	ARRIVED
Rwanda Nyamashek Nyaco	40	ARRIVED
Rwanda Nyamashek Kanyege	50	ARRIVED
Rwanda Dry Process Nyamyumba	26	ARRIVED
Rwanda Honey Process Kibirizi	50	ARRIVED
Rwanda Dry Process Mashesha	26	ARRIVED
Rwanda Dry Process Nyamiyaga	16	ARRIVED
Rwanda Dry Process Nyakabingo	32	ARRIVED
Rwanda Gitwe Peaberry	30	ETA 12/26
Rwanda Kivu Kageyo Lot 2	25	ETA 12/26
Rwanda Dry Process Gitwe	21	ETA 12/26
Rwanda Rusizi Mushaka	50	ETA 12/26
TanzaniaIn terms of the Tanzania coffee character, it belongs to the Central/East African family of washed (wet-processed) coffees, bright (acidy), and mostly aggressively flavorful of which Kenya is... Mbozi Ilomba AA	50	ETD December
Tanzania Dry Process Acacia Hills AB	22	ETD December
Tanzania Honey Process Acacia Hills AB	16	ETD December
Tanzania Mbozi Kanji Lalji Farm	50	ETD December
YemenYemen has a coffee culture like no other place, and perhaps some of what we enjoy in this cup is due to their old style of trade...: Technically,... MokhaThe Yemeni type of coffee, both in terms of the family of cultivars planted there, and the general trade name.: Mokha Yemeni type of coffee, both in terms... Matari	100	ETD 12/20
Yemen Bani Haraz	100	ETD 12/20
Yemen Al Qafr Hawari	100	ETD 12/20
Yemen Mokha Saanani	100	ETD 12/20
Yemen Mokha Peaberry	50	ETD 12/20

Indonesia & SE Asia & Oceania Incoming Coffees

Coffees	Bags	ETA
TimorTimor-Leste (East Timor) is a tiny island between Australia and Sulawesi, annexed by Indonesia and liberated in a referendum several years ago. Small scale coffee farming was jump-started... Leste Honey Process Daurfusu	20	ETA 12/29
Timor Leste Dry Process Daurfusu	20	ETA 12/29
Timor Leste Hatletegeo	30	ETA 12/29
Timor Leste Sabelu	25	ETA 12/29
Timor Leste Manulo	25	ETA 12/29
FloresFlores is an Indonesian island, and as a coffee bears more resemblance to the coffees of Timor-Leste, New Guinea and Java than to the wet-hulled coffees of Sumatra... Wet Hulled Bajawa Wawo Wae	47	ETA 12/29
SulawesiSulawesi coffees are low-acid with great body and that deep, brooding cup profile akin to Sumatra. The coffee is sometimes known as Celebes, which was the Dutch colonial... Kahayya Village	15	ETA 12/29
JavaThere are several types of Abyssinia variety coffee, but they are not from Ethiopia but rather Indonesia. Abyssinia 3 = AB3.  PJS Cramer, a Dutch plant researcher, introduced this variety... Sunda Iyan	55	ETA 12/29
Java Sunda Cirambai	40	ETA 12/29
Java Sunda Anaerobic Honey	15	ETA 12/29
Sulawesi Dry Process Topidi	8	ETA 12/29
Flores Bajawa Anaerobic Honey	25	ETA 12/29
Flores Albertus & Reti	20	ETA 12/29
Java Sunda Wet Hulled Dani	30	ETA 12/29
Papua New GuineaPapua New Guinea (PNG) occupies the eastern half of the island it shares with the Indonesian province of Irian Jaya, part of Indonesia. The two primary areas for... Morita	30	ETA 1/28
Papua New Guinea Tairora	30	ETA 1/28
Papua New Guinea Honey Process Baroida	30	ETA 1/28
Papua New Guinea Dry Process Baroida	30	ETA 1/28

South America Incoming Coffees

Coffees	Bags	ETA
Brazil Dry Process Sertao Yellow BourbonYellow Bourbon is a subtype that has fruit which ripens to a yellow color, found mainly in Brazil where it was first grown. Bourbon coffees are named for...	70	ARRIVED
Brazil Dry Process Santa Ines	70	ARRIVED
Brazil Pulp Natural Santa Ines	55	ARRIVED
Brazil Dry Process Pedra Branca	60	ARRIVED
Brazil Dry Process FazendaFazenda is the Portuguese word for farm, hence it is the term used in Brazil. Fazenda is not a coffee-specific term. Sertao	70	ARRIVED
Brazil Jose da Conceicao	52	ETA 12/30
Brazil Matheus de Oleivera Pereira	21	ETA 12/30
Brazil Amarildo Jose Borges	39	ETA 12/30
Brazil Flávio Caixeta Nunes	49	ETA 12/30
Brazil Marcio Martins Ferreira	48	ETA 12/30
Brazil Luis Otavio Turati	32	ETA 12/30
Brazil Dry Process Flavio Nuñez	49	ETA 12/30
Brazil Dry Process Marco Antonio	30	ETA 12/30
Brazil Dry Process Wilderson Avelar	21	ETA 12/30
Brazil Dry Process Agenito de Oliveira	20	ETA 12/30
Brazil Dry Process Alex Sandro	62	ETA 12/30
Brazil Dry Process Weber Washington	62	ETA 12/30
Brazil Bahia Viviana Aparecida	60	ETA 12/30
Colombia Frutas del Cauca	35	TBD
Colombia Inzá Vereda San Antonio	19	TBD
Colombia Inzá La Chorrera	26	TBD
Colombia Inzá Veredas Vecinas	43	TBD
Colombia Inzá Cresta El Hato	27	TBD
Colombia Tolima China Alta	17	TBD
Colombia Nariño Vereda Veracruz	9	TBD
Colombia Nariño Vereda Buesaco	5	TBD
Colombia San Antonio Doña Rosa	5	TBD
Colombia Inzá Vereda Pedregal	16	TBD
Colombia Inzá Las Estrellas	9	TBD
Colombia Inzá Río Páez	16	TBD
Colombia Buesaco EA Decaf	58	TBD
PeruPeruvian coffees have Central American brightness but in a South American coffee flavor package overall. The good organic lots do have more of a "rustic" coffee character.: Organic... Women’s Producers Group 1	40	ARRIVED
Peru El Diamante Doña Luz	50	ARRIVED
Peru Nuevo Trujillo Marcial Olivera	40	ARRIVED
Peru Productores Del Diamante	40	ARRIVED
Peru Women’s Producers Group 2	30	ARRIVED
Peru Huabal San Antonio	25	ARRIVED
Peru Huabal Edilberto Torres	25	ARRIVED
Peru Dry Process Alto Pirias	27	ARRIVED
Peru Huabal Perlamayo	30	ARRIVED
Peru Cajamarca San Ignacio	20	ARRIVED
Peru Jaen Alianza Mika	31	ARRIVED