Coffee Prices and Tariffs

Rising coffee prices have been in the news for most of 2025. The new, indiscriminate US tariffs that include coffee have also raised alarm bells.

News items about higher prices for coffee have been a staple in 2025. On top of that we are hearing a lot of alarm about US tariffs that include coffee, and coffee-producing nations. What does this mean for our customers? Should you buy all the coffee you can now, before prices go up?

Context Matters … some things you may already know.

We were having a chat in the Sweet Maria’s office about our new cropRefers to fresh shipments of green coffee within the first month or two of the earliest arrivals ... not quite the same as Current Crop, which means the... ...more Central American coffees. When they start to arrive (may or so) I told the staff we think pricing will be $9.25 to $10 a pound this year. Erica, who focuses on accounting, was in disbelief. If you have a long memory of our coffee list at Sweet Maria’s, either as an old-time customer or old-time employee like Erica, you remember when we had many coffees available for $5 or $5.50. This certainly is a huge jump

But if you have been buying coffee consistently, from Sweet Maria’s or basically anywhere, you’ve seen $8 become the new normal. A lot of this has to do with inflation around cost of production. All the supplies to produce and ship coffee have increased greatly. In the pandemic we had huge logistics price increases. Container that shipped for $2500 were jacked up to $10k and $15k. (And there was never the promised investigation on price gouging on that).

But the main story since late 2024 is the steady rise of the New York-based coffee futures market for ArabicaArabica refers to Coffea Arabica, the taxonomic species name of the genus responsible for around 75% of the worlds commercial coffee crop.: Arabica refers to Coffea Arabica, the... ...more coffee, that reached historic all-time highs this year. While we don’t buy commercial-grade coffee that is the basis for exchange on the NYSE, it has a huge impact in local coffee markets around the world that produce high-quality Specialty coffeeSpecialty coffee was a term devised to mean higher levels of green coffee quality than average "industrial coffee" or "commercial coffee". At this point, the term is of... ...more. Many local markets, like in GuatemalaGuatemalan coffee is considered a top quality coffee producer in Central America. Due to our proximity to Guatemala, some of the nicest coffees from this origin come to... ...more, are so plugged in to the daily “C” market price that the price for unprocessed parchmentGreen coffee still in its outer shell, before dry-milling, is called Parchment coffee (pergamino). In the wet process, coffee is peeled, fermented, washed and then ready for drying... ...more coffee or even coffee fruit follows the C market rise on a daily basis.

They will tell you the meteoric rise of the C market is based on a short supply in BrazilBrazil is a coffee giant . As Frank Sinatra sang, "they grow an awful lot of coffee in Brazil".: Brazil is a coffee giant . As Frank Sinatra... ...more and Vietnam. That’s only partially true. That lower supply is seen as an opportunity for traders of derivatives to capitalize on the coffee market, leading to increased volatility and more opportunities to make money on short term trading. It creates a feedback loop that only feeds more volatility, and has very little to do with the actual global coffee supply.

And some real reason for higher prices …

Besides the coffee market, many coffee origins have simply become more expensive for very real reasons. The cost to produce coffee has risen, period. We see this problem in particular in the Americas, but it’s happening everywhere.

Real costs of materials have increased, labor scarcity is a huge problem in many countries, and pressure on land with increased urbanization has reduced coffee producing areas in many locales. This is a story we are seeing played out all over, and it’s not going to be resolved except by better prices paid to coffee farmers that keep them doing their thing.

Our feeling, and we believe the sentiment of most of our customers, is they do not mind paying more for coffee if they know it is going to the farmer, and not to some trader in derivatives. That’s a key part of why we maintain first hand contact with so many of our sources, why we travel so much. It’s important to know the issues farmers face by being there, communicating directly, and verifying our producer-buyer relationship in person.

US Tariffs and Coffee

The big news this week (April 4 2025) is the across-the-board global tariffs against, well, everyone. In the past coffee has been an exception on the basis that US does not grow or export a meaningful amount of coffee (HawaiiThe Kona district on the big island of Hawaii produces the best coffee from this state - clean, sweet and mild. : Ah, Hawaii... what a nice place.... ...more, Puerto RicoPuerto Rican coffee has the typical"island profile". These coffees, which include Jamaica and Kona, have a soft cup, not acidic, balanced, and mild. : I have tried other... ...more), so there is no need to protect US farmers or a US producer in the case of coffee.

But that assumes that the tariffs are logical, appropriate, or specific to a need. As I write this, coffee is not exempted from the new US tariffs, and in fact certain coffee-producing nations have been singled out for exceptionally punitive tariffs. (IndonesiaUSDA is (obviously) the United States Department of Agriculture. USDA also had coffee plant breeding programs in the past and one variety they distributed to Indonesia and was... ...more stands out for us, but we also have coffee incoming from Laos and China too). And every import from every nation, no matter how poor or small, is hit by the 10% tariff. This tariff is really not, as people commonly say, a tariff against a country… say EthiopiaEthiopia, formerly known as Abyssinia, or a coffee cultivar: Ethiopia, or more specifically the Empire under Haile Selassie,  was known as Abyssinia. The name is Latin, derived from... ...more. In fact it is a tax that the person in the US will pay to buy Ethiopian coffee. It is a 10% tax on the US consumer, on all of us at all income levels… just collected in a different way.

A small bit of good news we found out is the coffee we have incoming that is close to clearing US customs is not subject to tariffs. If it is on the last leg of the voyage to the US, it will not have the extra tariff added. A container of ColombiaColombian coffee is highly marketed and widely available in the US. They have been largely successful at equating the name Colombian Coffee with "Good" Coffee. This is half-true.... ...more and BurundiBurundi coffee bears resemblance to neighboring Rwanda, in both cup character, but also the culture surrounding coffee. Burundi is a small landlocked country at the crossroads of East... ...more coffee are two that come to mind that will escape added tariffs. Not so lucky with an Indonesia container with many nice small lots from SumatraIndonesians are available as a unique wet-hulled or dry-hulled (washed) coffees. Giling Basah is the name for the wet-hulling process in Bahasa language, and will have more body... ...more. It did not sail yet, and will be hit with extra tariffs since Indonesia, for some reason I don’t know, has been with large extra tariffs. See the chart of some key regions from Altas Coffee importers:

What’s a Home Roaster to do?

Our policy here at Sweet Maria’s is to maintain a margin to cover costs and reasonable profit based on what we pay. As prices have risen we have maintained that, which is why current Guatemalas on our list are not $10! We bought them in the market of the previous harvest, paying a steady and generous premium for quality to the farmers we source from. That’s what we always do, independent of the NY commodities market.

While we do estimate that new coffees currently being readied to ship from places like Ethiopia could be hit with the 10% tariff on arrival, it’s good to put this in perspective. A $9.00 per Lb coffee that is now $9.90 means for pour-over brewing a change from .30 to .33 cents pre cup (based on 30 10 oz cups per pound). Home roasting is still a good deal for sure, and will remain that way.

We also offer a declining price per Lb … so if you decided to buy 5 Lbs of a coffee you like versus 1 Lb, you would basically erase the impact of the tariff. Yeah, it’s not fair you should have to, because there should be no punitive tariff paid by coffee drinkers. But that’s out of our control sadly.

(And FYI we have not, and we will not raise our prices preemptively based on the fact future coffee will be tariffed, or otherwise more expensive. The actual cost of our current stock hasn’t changed. So why should the price we sell it for change? There’s various justifications businesses use to do things like that, but to me its’ just price gouging and very unfair to a loyal customer base.)

My personal sense is the idea of hoarding a bunch of coffee now at current prices is not worth the possible savings, while missing out on all the new incoming lots as you work through a big stash. We will continue to do everything on our end to maintain the high-quality direct-trade relationships as always, and will continue to price our coffee fairly for you as we have always done. I know I am basically telling you not to binge-buy now, which many businesses really do nothing to discourage. But we think longer term I guess, and would rather have you as a customer in the future than just think about how we can separate you from your money today! Strange approach, eh?

As far as coffee roasters, grinder, and other equipment, this is of greater concern. If there is something in stock that you have been wanting, perhaps it is time to consider it because new shipments of roasters coming from Asia will certainly cost more.

Will the tariffs last?

That’s anyone’s guess. Since a tariff on coffee makes little sense in the first place, what sensible thing will happen to pressure the administration to lift it? How much influence do coffee producers or the coffee business collectively have to reach the centers of power, competing with every other industry, and every other country? It’s more likely that growing popular discontent by average people will have more impact that a coffee trade group or other entity to change the tariff on coffee

-Thompson April 6 2025

April 9 Update: One thing for sure: Poorly planned and executed acts will result in chaos and uncertainty. (But that chaos is intentional, right? Sure…)

The 10% tariffs are still on, and still impact coffee that enters the USA after April 5 2025

But as of now, US consumers won’t have to pay for reciprocal tariffs rolled into the cost of their purchases, at least for 90 days. But again, we will all pay the 10% universal level added to retail prices, including coffee imported after April 5.

And it seems a loophole on further tariffs on MexicoMexican coffee originates from South-central to Southern regions of the country. For that reason, coffees from Coatepec and Veracruz are much different from Oaxacan Plumas, which are in... ...more has closed. (I talked to someone yesterday arranging to buy 4 containers of Mexico coffee because it, up til then, had escaped further tariffs. But that was yesterday. Today another policy change, and that poor buyer just got dinged for $75,000 or so). How can people make decisions in this environment? If someone rammed their car through the front of your business and caused $75k damage, you could sue them to recover it. What do you do in this case? It’s all been frustrating and confusing.