Green Coffee Outlook – January 2022 – for Sweet Maria’s and Coffee Shrub

Stay up to date on coffee we have coming down the pipeline and our latest green coffee outlook and arrivals schedule.

Green Coffee Notes for January 2022:

  • We’re still working our way out from under a pile of orders that came in over the holiday season, but are very close to being completely caught up.
  • This has meant employing some very temporary trade offs, like limiting the number of coffees on our website, and letting our Liquid Amber, French, and New Classic blends run out of stock. These sacrifices are only short-term, and things should get back to normal, with a full list of coffees, and regular order turnarounds at the start of February. Thank you so much for your patience as we work through this!
  • Looking over the February Outlook below, you’ll see some a few origins coming back in stock, like Colombia, and Honduras (actually, we just launched our first Honduras from Beneficio San Vicente that you can check out here). In addition, we also have containers of coffee from Peru, Brazil, Flores, and Sulawesi with ETA’s a little later in February. You’ll start to see those pop up on the February Coffee Outlook once we have a solid idea of ETA’s.
  • On that note, the Oakland Port has been operating at normal capacity once again, which is good news for processing our West Coast arrivals. Our most recent coffees moved through the Port within 10 days of landing, which is a huge improvement from the 1 month+ turnarounds we were experiencing in late 2021!

This live tracking map of global maritime traffic shows the congestion of ships at the Shanghai port (marked by the star)
This live tracking map of global maritime traffic shows the congestion of ships at the Shanghai port (marked by the star)

  • But further up the logistics chain, congestion is mounting at trans-shipment ports such as Shanghai. Regional outbreaks of the OMICRON variant have caused several Chinese ports to temporarily close, leaving many shippers little option but to reroute to Shanghai, causing a massive bottleneck, long processing times, and extremely limited space for trans-shipping cargo on outgoing vessels.
  • Obviously this does not affect incoming coffees from Latin America at the moment. But our recent shipments from Burundi and Rwanda are unfortunately caught up in the congestion, and we’re currently working with our import partners to push them through as quickly as possible.
  • We just finished booking full containers of coffee from Colombia (yes, another one!), Sumatra, and Timor Leste. We are also just starting to see early offer samples from Ethiopia, and expect those contracts to start to take shape by the end of the month.

A Note on the Rising Cost of Green Coffee in 2022

  • There’s no doubt this will be one of the most expensive years for coffee in our 20+ years of business. The price for coffee on the ICE market (Intercontinental Exchange) closed today at roughly $2.35/lb, compared to $1.25 this time last year, an 88% increase.
  • The C Market resistance we’re seeing at $2.50 at the moment may not be the ceiling, and how high this thing goes before the pendulum swings the other way is anybody’s guess.
  • The initial upward push coincided with a severe draught in Brazil, followed by one of the worst frosts in decades, the damage of which is playing out in 2022. Coffee shortages and extreme transit delays in parts of the world have left buyers scrambling to cover their positions, which only served to push the price upward even more.
  • But these are only the backdrop to what’s driving the prices we pay for coffee (we rarely follow the C Market unless it’s in an upward trajectory!). High local demand for coffee in the different buying origins, as well as higher costs to growers and exporters are pushing that price up even higher.
  • This email excerpt from an exporter we worked with in Costa Rica last year illuminates some of the nuanced costs of doing business, not often seen by the consumer, but greatly affect the bottom line. It’s unfortunately a common story in many other regions too.

This email from a partner in Costa Rica outlines some of the costs that are affecting the coffee price locally.
This email from a partner in Costa Rica outlines some of the costs that are affecting the coffee price locally.

  • “Paying more for coffee” isn’t so much the issue here. Unfortunately, a big chunk of the inflated prices is being absorbed by supply chain actors like shipping companies who are able to squeeze exorbitant fees for their services because there are simply no other options. We’d much rather see that $$$ go to farmer premiums, but this is where we’re at.
  • This is new territory for us, and we are looking for ways to counter some of these costs so that we don’t have to raise prices more than necessary.
  • Unlike most coffee importers who sell their stock based off the current C Market price, our prices for coffees in-house are fixed. This means you never pay more for any coffee we currently have listed or in the wings.
  • But for the coffee we are buying right now, you can expect to see prices trend upward as we move through the year to help cover that added cost. All coffee will be affected to some degree, but with “hidden” costs such as logistics varying wildly from one origin to the next, that increase will also vary.

Upcoming green coffees currently on the schedule to be added to our website:

Please keep in mind that the coffees on the Upcoming Coffee Outlook schedule with a location status of “In Transit” are still a bit of a wild card, and the month we have them listed under is based on the current shipping ETA, and subject to interruptions out of our control. Thanks for your patience!

January Coffee Outlook

Guatemala Xinabajul Los Chuchitos10060 KGOakland
India Organic Araku Valley2060 KGOakland
Kenya Nyeri Gatugi Peaberry2560 KGOakland
Sumatra Honey Process Kerinci2560 KGOakland
Yemen Sana’a-Ibb Highlands3632 KGOakland
Sweet Maria’s Moka Kadir BlendN/AOakland

February Coffee Outlook

Brazil Alta Mogiana Santo Amaro8030 KGOakland
Colombia Buesaco Productores Aliados5170 KGOakland
Colombia Inzá Rio Páez2470 KGOakland
Colombia Honey Process Ciudad Nube2370 KGOakland
Costa Rica Honey Process Las Anonas1569 KGOakland
Costa Rica Helsar SWP Decaf5660 KGOakland
El Salvador Finca Miravalle Bourbon2869 KGOakland
Ethiopia Organic Dry Process Daannisa10060 KGOakland
Ethiopia Yirga Cheffe Kebele Gotiti12060 KGOakland
Guatemala Huehuetenango Finca Rosma69 KGOakland
Guatemala Finca La Florencia2869 KGOakland
Guatemala Xinabajul Santa Barbara2069 KGOakland
Honduras Las Flores Doña Maria Parainema1469 KGOakland
Honduras Montecillos Finca La Alondra1369 KGOakland
Kenya Kirinyaga Kiunyu Peaberry1160 KGOakland
Laos Paksong Typica860 KGOakland
Nicaragua Finca Buenos Aires Lot 22569 KGOakland
Nicaragua Honey Buenos Aires Maracaturra569 KGOakland
Nicaragua Dry Process El Suyatal569 KGOakland
Sumatra Kerinci Tujuh Cooperative4060 KGOakland
Sweet Maria's Coffee Shrub Coffee Sourcerer
Sweet Maria’s Coffee Shrub Coffee Sourcerer

Incoming coffees currently on the water:

Africa Incoming Coffees

Congo Organic Dry Process Kivu Katana6060 KGFeb 10
Congo Organic Kirumba Kavisa4060 KGFeb 10
Rwanda Rubavu Rwinyoni6060 KGMarch 21
Rwanda Rusizi Gaseke2560 KGMarch 21
Rwanda Nyamasheke Nyakabingo2560 KGMarch 21
Rwanda Ngororero2560 KGMarch 21
Rwanda Nyamasheke Macuba4560 KGMarch 21
Rwanda Dry Process Kanyege2560 KGMarch 21
Rwanda Honey Process Kanyege3060 KGMarch 21
Rwanda Dry Process Macuba4060 KGMarch 21
Rwanda Dry Process Nyamiyaga2060 KGMarch 21
Rwanda Honey Process Karambi3060 KGMarch 21
Yemen Mokha Khulani15032 KGMarch 21
Yemen Mokha Matari15032 KGMarch 21
Yemen Hiwar5032 KGMarch 21
Yemen Mokha Harasi10032 KGMarch 21
Yemen Haimi5032 KGMarch 21
Yemen Hajjah10032 KGMarch 21
Burundi Yeast Fermentation Yandaro2060 KGApril 1
Burundi Kabarore Commune Yandaro7060 KGApril 1
Burundi Kayanza Gahahe6560 KGApril 1
Burundi Gatare Masha4560 KGApril 1
Burundi Dry Process Kibingo Station6060 KGApril 1
Burundi Gaterama Agahore Station2860 KGApril 1
Burundi Dry Process Agahore2660 KGApril 1
Tanzania Namku AA30 (of 55)60 KGNot yet shipped
Tanzania Sepulila AB39 (all)60 KGNot yet shipped
Tanzania Namku Peaberry19 (all)60 KGNot yet shipped
Tanzania Igale Peaberry24 (all)60 KGNot yet shipped
Zambia Anaerobic Dry Process1560 KGNot yet shipped
Zambia Fully Washed1560 KGNot yet shipped

South America Incoming Coffees

Peru Quanda Chirinos20.0069 KGJan 23
Peru Lonya Grande Velo De Novia45.0069 KGJan 23
Peru San Jose De Lourdes20.0069 KGJan 23
Peru Organic San Ignacio50.0069 KGJan 23
Peru Organic La Coipa75.0069 KGJan 23
Brazil Marcos Ferreira De Faria50.0060 KGJan 29
Brazil Thiago Marson Casavechia80.0060 KGJan 29
Brazil Vera Lucia Pereira20.0060 KGJan 29
Brazil Thales Donizete Dos Reis30.0060 KGJan 29
Brazil Adair De Oliveira Neto25.0060 KGJan 29
Brazil Fred Terumi Iwano35.0060 KGJan 29
Peru San Francisco Pedro Garcia4069 KGFeb 2
Peru Bello Horizonte Andres Burga2969 KGFeb 2
Peru Las Pirias Ramiro Vela2669 KGFeb 2
Peru Huabal Dalila Cruz4269 KGFeb 2
Peru El Diamante Roger Chilcon5869 KGFeb 2
Peru Pueblo Las Piñas4869 KGFeb 2
Peru El Paraiso Yoner Arevalo3869 KGFeb 2

Indonesia & SE Asia Incoming Coffees

Papua New Guinea Kainantu Sero7060 KGJan 17
Papua New Guinea Korgua Estate AA2660 KGFeb 21
Sulawesi Rodo Rodo1760 KGFeb 25
Sulawesi Wet Hulled Latimojong4060 KGFeb 25
Sulawesi Panaikang860 KGFeb 25
Sulawesi Desa Topidi860 KGFeb 25
Sulawesi Honey Process Gowa560 KGFeb 25
Sulawesi Dry Process Topidi1160 KGFeb 25
Java Wet Hulled Siki Alit3060 KGFeb 25
Java Wet Hulled Waspada4060 KGFeb 25
Flores Wawo Muda1860 KGFeb 25
Flores Waja Mala1860 KGFeb 25
Flores Wolo Wio3860 KGFeb 25
Flores Dry Process Bei Poso760 KGFeb 25
Timor Leste Daurfusu2560 KGNot Yet Shipped
Timor Leste Daurfusu3060 KGNot Yet Shipped
Timor Leste Daurfusu1060 KGNot Yet Shipped
Timor Honey Process Leste Daurfusu5560 KGNot Yet Shipped
Timor Dry Process Leste Daurfusu5560 KGNot Yet Shipped
Timor Leste Dry Process Lulirema1860 KGNot Yet Shipped
Timor Leste Taurema1860 KGNot Yet Shipped
Timor Leste Basargeon1660 KGNot Yet Shipped
Timor Leste Hatletegeo1560 KGNot Yet Shipped
Timor Leste Lekisala4060 KGNot Yet Shipped

26 Responses

  1. I appreciate the schedule you have online.I gives me a good idea when coffee from coffee producing countries are potentially arriving at your wharehouse.I can then plan on when and what particular coffee to order.I like the coffees of central and South America the most.

    1. Hey, that’s good to hear Jim. We expect some of the dates to shift around a bit, but hope that having some idea of when you can expect fresh coffees helps. Sounds like it does! We have a good amount of Centrals in-house now, and new Colombias just arrived Oakland this week. Be on the lookout in the coming weeks.

      Cheers,
      Dan

  2. Its always helpful to see what is coming up, and I am excited to see some Burundi and more Rwandan coffees, as I have really liked those I’ve tried.

    Also, I am stoked that Yemen Sana’a Ibb is back. I bought a pound past year, and it made some of my favorite espresso shots ever!

    1. Yes – our Burundi and more Rwanda (including more naturals and honey lots) are coming soon, so delayed by international logistics issues! We have Yemeni coffee now and more incoming, but not yet departed from port yet.

  3. Hugely helpful as I live in Switzerland and bulk purchase once or twice a year. Can you please make sure this kind of info is maintained and easy to find?

  4. Puerto Rico and other Caribbean islands are good coffee growers and producers. I’ve been to several coffee farms in Puerto Rico and they seem well organized. I don’t see any Caribbean green coffees in your inventory, but would like to buy some. Are there any coming?

    1. Hi John – yes there are some good farms for sure. I would love to offer more Carribean options … or any Carribean options! The big issues for us 1. cup quality due to relatively low altitudes of most coffee areas, 2. damage to the cup quality in export, mainly due do high humidity 3. scarcity … not because the coffees are so rare or good, but because most island nations are consuming everything they produce! And it fact a lot if it goes into very low grade pre-ground coffee with high defect counts. Problem there is that farmers can sell any quality of coffee with less labor involved, so why invest more when you can sell locally at a decent price? It all adds up to a difficult time sourcing anything that cups well, when compared to say Central America offerings. We did see a nice coffee sample last harvest from Dominican Republic, which has some of the better altitudes and coffee varieties around. But when it arrived it tasted papery and faded and we couldn’t offer it. Jamaica, ugh, haven’t tasted anything that tastes better than low grown Mexico coffee for years now. PR: similar. It’s been frustrating! But we will keep trying

  5. Finally, some Tanzanian Peaberry on the horizon! TP+Yirga is my go-to blend, and I haven’t seen any Tanzanians for months. I’m gonna try not to hoard the stuff 🙂

  6. Thanks Thompson. Excellent information about Caribbean coffees; I just wondered about that. I’ll be back in Puerto Rico in February. The Cafe Lareno and Mis Abuelos farms are near where I stay. I’ll revisit and see if they’ll sell me a few pounds of green directly, and, if so, see how they roast.

  7. What is the outlook for Decaf Coffees. I would assume the “Decaffinator’s” are feeling the same impacts as the regular distributors. Isn’t most of SM’s decaf coffees processed in Mexico?

    1. Fantastic question Bob, and yes, they are. We’ve had to book our tolls in advance by about 3-4 months right now, which is twice the normal turnaround. We pretty much have all our decafs processed at Swiss Water in Canada. It’s about as gentle a process on the coffee as decaffeination can be, which is good for the cup!

      We have two really nice Swiss decafs that will be listed in the coming weeks from Costa Rica, and Ethiopia, and then hope to have our next coffees processed in March.

    2. Hi Bob – no we don’t actually get any coffee processed in Mexico. Almost all if ours is processed by Swiss Water in Vancouver Canada. But we did get this nice lot from Colombia, that was EA type decaf … it was the same deal. We cupped the lots out as non-decaf, and then approved them to send on for decaffeination, just as we do with Swiss Water. I think its why we get good results from decaf. Historically people send the cheapest coffee they can for decaf. We actually send the same quality coffee we offer as non-decaf.

  8. Love it. I have been dying to ask this question though: When are we going to see more Yemen Ismaili? That is my favorite, but you have not offered it in several years. Thanks.

    1. Hey Frederick,

      We honestly haven’t seen samples from Ismaili in a few years. I know it’s difficult to access due to the rugged terrain, but will have to ask our intermediary if there’s any way to see samples next harvest.

      We just finished up selecting coffee for a full container of Yemeni coffee that should arrive stateside in early March. While there’s no Ismaili represented, there are a few that have some of that rustic-sweet/berry quality that I remember Ismaili having (it’s been sooooo long tho), in particular, the lots of Khulani and Mattari.

      I’m excited for this year’s coffee, and we approved 6 lots in total – a new Sweet Maria’s record! Haha. But keep an eye out. It should be a nice, diverse set of coffees.

      -Dan

    2. Ismaili was something we sourced originally from one supplier (yemen mocha coffee trade) and then another (al hajj) but since then it hasn’t been available as a distinct regional coffee. It could be semantics because sometimes the coffees like Harazi are coming from adjacent areas like ismaili – i think there isn’t really a strict geographical zone when it comes to coffee, and it’s rather fluid. I do agree that, especially the original ismaili we sourced way back was unique though – very small dense bean. We still see it, and this coming harvest we have lots from some areas we haven’t offered before which are exciting. The preshipment samples we just approved cupped really well!

  9. Love the library portion of your website and the upcoming beans list. Just stumbled upon it from your email letter.

    1. We actually have quite a few lots queued up to add to the site over the next month. Some are coming in over the next couple weeks, and then its just the logistics to get them onto the site from there.

  10. Thanks for your update on decafs in your replied to Bob on Jan 28th . You had a Sweet Maria’s Moka Kadir Blend decaf a while back. I’m wondering if you are going to offer that again. I saw the Sweet Maria’s Moka Kadir Blend (regular) come in in Jan.

    Thanks for the list and for your coffee write-ups. I appreciate seeing and reading about the folks growing and processing the coffee beans.

    1. I think a decaf of Mocha Java would be a great thing to get back in stock. One of my favorites! We will see if we can do that … thanks for the suggestion!

    1. Hey there, we are all but out of Kenya from last year’s harvest. The good news is, we’ve already selected 2 full containers of fresh Kenyas from the current harvest and are crossing our fingers for an early arrival by March/April. You can look for those on the February Green Coffee outlook that goes up next week!

      We did reserve a couple small Kenya lots to post in the next couple of weeks to try and bride the gap a little until new crop arrives.

      -Dan

    1. I’m glad you asked and pointed out the missing headers! I’ll add those in shortly. But yes, the first number to the right of the coffee is the bag count, then bag size (“60kg” for example), then estimated arrival date/month.

      Hope that helps!

      Dan

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