July Green Coffee Outlook: A Bigger Threat to Coffee Prices than Frost

The pause on reciprocal tariffs has ended, bringing new anxieties around coffee prices.

With the threat of a frost in Brazil nearly in the rearview mirror comes a renewed uncertainty of additional costs from tariffs. The 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs expired on July 9, opening the door for the President to increase tariff amounts for specific countries. This is in addition to the 10% tariff currently applied to all imported goods, including coffee.

So far only 14 countries have been singled out for reciprocal tariffs. However, we’re already seen that this number can change rather quickly. Just this week, an additional 50% tariff on all goods from Brazil was threatened. While still just a threat, this would bring the total tax on Brazilian imports to 60%, the highest reciprocal tariff yet.

The tariffs are supposed to be about balancing trade deficits. Never mind the fact that with Brazil we have a trade surplus. Brazil is the world’s largest supplier of coffee (the US being the largest buyer), and any possible disruption of that supply chain – price hikes included – will certainly impact coffee prices globally. One of the biggest drivers of coffee market volatility is the threat of frost damage to Brazilian coffee crops, but we may have found a bigger specter in the threat of tariffs.

A view of the Catuaí planted at Fazenda Condado Saō José, in Santa Rita do Sapucaí, Brazil.
A view of the Catuaí planted at Fazenda Condado Saō José, in Santa Rita do Sapucaí, Brazil.

The problem with all of this, is that it’s not the countries who pay the tax – it’s us. At the current rate of 10%, a $150,000 container of Brazilian coffee sees about a $14,000 tariff added on top. A 60% tariff would increase that amount to a whopping $80,000. To a small business, both numbers are quite painful.

Tom recently posted a photo of an “Entry Summary” invoice that we now receive for all our arrivals, showing how these new tariffs are applied. As he pointed out in that post, the added costs are significant ($20,000 in this particular instance), and not something we are able to absorb. We have to pass it along in our prices. Not that there’s ever a good time for tariffs, but this is all happening in a coffee market that’s recently soared to historic levels.

It is what it is, and like everyone else, we will muddle through. We count ourselves lucky to have customers who are willing to muddle through with us. In fact, we’ve received some really thoughtful responses to previous missives on the topic, and will continue to talk openly about this, doing our best to keep folks posted on any changes. What happens tomorrow is really anyone’s guess.

July and August bring arrivals from Ethiopia and Central America

You may have noticed a few new crop offers trickling out to the site from Guatemala and Mexico, but the bulk of shipments from Central America, and Ethiopia arrive over the next two months. In fact between Guatemala, Costa Rica, and El Salvador, we’ve seen four containers last during the past two weeks alone. This includes coffees we buy yearly, like Pulcal, Cabrejo, and La Folie from Guatemala, as well as Finca Jose, Don Oscar, and Don Mayo from Costa Rica.

Ethiopian arrivals are still about 2 weeks away from landing in Oakland, the first box includes washed and dry process coffees from Hambela Dabaye, Buliye, and Benti Nenka. After cupping the pre-shipment samples 2 weeks ago, I can honestly say that the quality from these sites is phenomenal. We hope to have our initial offerings available by the 2nd week of August.

"Natural" process coffee dries on raised beds at the Buliye site in Hambela Wamena, Ethiopia.
“Natural” process coffee dries on raised beds at the Buliye site in Hambela Wamena, Ethiopia.

Scroll through the Upcoming Coffees lists below for an updated schedule of coffees rolling out in July/August, including quite a few from these first arrivals. In response to requests for more details about when coffees will be available, we’ve added a new column with the projected “Launch Week”. While it’s a good estimate of when things will launch, please keep in mind that we may occasionally push back the schedule due to issues outside our control. Whatever the case, hopefully this guesstimate helps folks plan ahead!

One last thing to note is that you’ll see quite a few Central American coffees in our “Incoming Coffees” list with a status of “ARRIVED”. This means the container is in Oakland, but not yet in our possession. It generally takes a couple of weeks for incoming shipments to be physically moved to the offsite storage facility we use. Once they are transferred, they will be removed from our “Incoming” list. On that note, just because a coffee’s disappeared – like some of the Guatemala’s and Costa Rica’s have from the May Outlook – doesn’t mean you missed them. It means they are now in our possession and you should see them on our launch schedule shortly.

Upcoming Coffees July

Launch WeekCoffee NameBags
7/14 – 7/18Burundi Dry Process Colline Kigina20
7/14 – 7/18Costa Rica Chirripo Finca Jose50
7/14 – 7/18Costa Rica Cerro Alto La Union35
7/14 – 7/18Kenya Kirinyaga Kainamui Peaberry22
7/14 – 7/18Mexico Sierra Madre de Chiapas30
7/14 – 7/18Sumatra Wet Process Kerinci Pendekar10
7/21 – 7/25Brazil Dry Process Sítio Três Barras19
7/21 – 7/25Colombia Cajamarca Alexander Mancilla11
7/21 – 7/25Costa Rica Don Oscar Aguacates40
7/21 – 7/25Costa Rica Tarrazú Cerro La Cruz25
7/21 – 7/25Mexico Organic Granjeros Chiapas WP Decaf50
7/21 – 7/25Yemen Al Qafr Hawari51
7/21 – 7/25Sweet Maria’s Altiplano Blendn/a

Below is a list of upcoming green coffees currently on the schedule to be added to our website in July and the start of August.

Upcoming Coffees August (so far)

Launch WeekCoffee NameBags
7/28 – 8/1Brazil Pulp Natural Gabriel Wagner58
7/28 – 8/1Colombia Edward Sandoval Gesha9
7/28 – 8/1Costa Rica Yellow Honey Sumava SL-2810
7/28 – 8/1Guatemala Antigua Pulcal Inteligente51
7/28 – 8/1Guatemala Antigua La Folie45
7/28 – 8/1Kenya Nyeri Gatomboya AA30
8/4 – 8/8Colombia Pitalito Evelio Pink Bourbon10
8/4 – 8/8Guatemala FTO Dry Process Chaucús30
8/4 – 8/8Kenya Nyeri Kangocho AB30
8/4 – 8/8Laos Paksong Hills Typica Variety12
8/4 – 8/8Laos Paksong Hills Gesha12
8/4 – 8/8Laos Paksong Hills Catigua Variety12
8/11 – 8/15Colombia El Virgel Carlos Emilio Chiroso7
8/11 – 8/15Ethiopia Hambela Benti Nenka60
8/11 – 8/15Ethiopia Dry Process Hambela Buliye100
8/11 – 8/15Guatemala Antigua Finca Cabrejo30
8/11 – 8/15Rwanda Anaerobic Karambi20
8/11 – 8/15Sulawesi Dry Process Napu Robusta5
8/18 – 8/22Brazil Dry Process Alta da Serra10
8/18 – 8/22Sumatra Dry Process Bebesen Aulia20
Sweet Maria's Coffee Shrub Coffee Sourcerer
Sweet Maria’s Coffee Shrub Coffee Sourcerer

Incoming coffees currently on the water: February onward

Please keep in mind that names may change when we list the coffee on our website. Location status of “TBD” are also a bit of a wild card, as logistical disruptions are out of our control! You also may notice some of the coffees from last month’s list have disappeared. Don’t worry, you probably haven’t missed them. They are now in our possession and should be on our launch schedule soon. Thanks for your patience!

African Incoming Coffees

Lot IDBagsArrival Date
Ethiopia Hambela Dabaye60ETA 7/21
Ethiopia Hambela Benti Nenka60ETA 7/21
Ethiopia Dry Process Benti Nenka100ETA 7/21
Ethiopia Dry Process Hambela Buliye100ETA 7/21
Ethiopia Guji Goro Bedessa120ETA 8/16
Ethiopia Kayon Mountain Taaroo100ETA 8/16
Ethiopia Guji Goro Bedessa100ETA 8/16
Ethiopia Honey Process Guji Goro10ETA 8/16
Ethiopia Dry Process Suke Quto100ETA 8/16
Ethiopia Dry Process Guji Buku110ETA 8/16
Ethiopia Dry Process Uraga100ETA 8/16
Ethiopia Dry Process Buno Dambi Uddo80ETA 8/16
Ethiopia Dry Process Hambela Goro80ETA 8/16
Ethiopia Uraga Barkume115ETA 8/16
Ethiopia Honey Process Barkume45ETA 8/16
Ethiopia Dry Process Bensa Kokose35ETA 8/16
Ethiopia Uraga Siko90ETA 8/16
Ethiopia Dry Process Guji Gogogu90ETA 8/16
Ethiopia Dry Process Guji Tuku100ETA 9/20
Ethiopia Dry ProcessDogo Sodu120ETA 9/20
Ethiopia Gerba Hechere100ETA 9/20
Ethiopia Yirga Cheffe Banko Gotiti80ETA 9/20
Ethiopia Dry Process Guji Goro Badesa80ETA 9/20
Ethiopia Dry Process Yirga Cheffe Halo Beriti80ETA 9/20
Ethiopia Dry Process Uraga Yabitu Koba80ETA 9/20
Ethiopia Dry Process Duromina Aba Bulgu80ETA 9/20
Ethiopia Organic Agaro Geta Bore40ETA 9/20
Ethiopia Organic Gera Nano Challa80ETA 9/20
Ethiopia Organic Agaro Kenisa40ETA 9/20
Ethiopia Organic Dry Process Birbirsa60ETA 9/20
Ethiopia Uraga Gogogu120ETA 9/20
Ethiopia Uraga Raro Boda100ETA 9/20
Ethiopia Dry Process Chelbesa Danche100ETA 9/20
Rwanda Rulindo Tumba 31945August Ship
Rwanda Rulindo Tumba 53110August Ship
Rwanda Coproca30August Ship
Rwanda Rusizi Gaseke50August Ship
Rwanda Nyamasheke Nyungwe50August Ship
Rwanda Rusizi Mushaka50August Ship
Rwanda Nyamasheke Gitwe50August Ship
Rwanda Milles Collines Peaberry35August Ship

Central America Incoming Coffees

Lot IDBagsArrival Date
Guatemala San Diego Buena Vista Java70ARRIVED
Guatemala Acatenango Gesha A60ARRIVED
Guatemala Acatenango Gesha AA70ARRIVED
Guatemala San Diego Buena Vista Bourbon134ARRIVED
Guatemala San Diego Buena Vista Pink Bourbon5ARRIVED
Guatemala San Martin Jilotepeque43ARRIVED
Guatemala Chimaltenango Tecpan29ARRIVED
El Salvador Miravalles Sampacho49ARRIVED
El Salvador Atiquizaya Tabi36ARRIVED
El Salvador Finca Miravalles Caturra9ARRIVED
El Salvador Finca Miravalles Castillo51ARRIVED
El Salvador Finca Miravalles Bourbon28ARRIVED
El Salvador Finca San Miguel Bourbon14ARRIVED
El Salvador Miravalles Yellow Bourbon12ARRIVED
El Salvador Honey Process Finca Miravalles23ARRIVED
El Salvador Dry Process Finca San Luis30ARRIVED
El Salvador Dry Process Ana Café19ARRIVED
El Salvador Dry Process Cuscatleco8ARRIVED
El Salvador Miravalles Pacamara4ARRIVED
Costa Rica Chirripo Joicafe60ARRIVED
Costa Rica Zarcero Monte Brisas Danto40ARRIVED
Costa Rica Dry Process Higuito10ARRIVED
Costa Rica Zarcero Monte Brisas Centroamericano30ARRIVED
Costa Rica Honey Chirripo Bambú30ARRIVED
Costa Rica Honey Process Hacienda Sonora3ARRIVED
Costa Rica Zarcero Monte Typica16ARRIVED
Costa Rica Zarcero Monte Cassiopea20ARRIVED
Costa Rica Dry Process Hacienda Sonora50ARRIVED
Costa Rica Anaerobic Arecas10ARRIVED
Costa Rica Anaerobic Cristian Alvarez10ARRIVED
Nicaragua Buenos Aires Los Pinos40ETA 8/3
Nicaragua Acopio Suyatal50ETA 8/3
Nicaragua Dipilto Monte Libano30ETA 8/3
Nicaragua Ojo de Agua15ETA 8/3
Nicaragua Finca Buenos Aires40ETA 8/3
Nicaragua Los Alpes Caturra5ETA 8/3
Nicaragua Buenos Aires Peaberry5ETA 8/3
Nicaragua Maracaturra Los Medios20ETA 8/3
Nicaragua Buenos Aires Java20ETA 8/3
Nicaragua Buenos Aires Maracaturra20ETA 8/3
Nicaragua Honey Process Maracaturra20ETA 8/3
Nicaragua Dry Process Maracaturra20ETA 8/3
Nicaragua Dipilto Finca La Laguna5ETA 8/3
Guatemala Xinabajul Carmelino Sales10August Ship
Guatemala Xinabajul Lisandro Hidalgo20August Ship
Guatemala Xinabajul Axel Villatoro14August Ship
Guatemala Xinabajul Miriam Gomez20August Ship
Guatemala Michicoy Finca Rosma34August Ship
Guatemala Xinabajul San Pedro Necta40August Ship
Guatemala Xinabajul Bojonalito20August Ship
Guatemala Keneth Merida Pacamara13August Ship
Guatemala Honey Process Aguacatones5August Ship
Guatemala Anaerobic Aguacatones2August Ship
Guatemala Dry Process Finca Rosma5August Ship
Guatemala Dry Process Aguacatones5August Ship
Guatemala Xinabajul Aler Villatoro20August Ship
Guatemala Xinabajul Rosalio Villatoro20August Ship
Guatemala Huehuetenango Boqueroncito20August Ship
Guatemala Xinabajul Flavio Martinez20August Ship
Guatemala Libertad Aurelio del Cerro22August Ship

38 Responses

    1. Hi Stuart, it sure is. This container arrived at the port last week, and we’re hoping to have that one up sometime in August.

      Thanks,
      Dan

  1. Dan, maybe I missed it but I did not see Burundi Gatara Masha mentioned. I really enjoyed that one last year and, man oh man, did it make an excellent iced coffee too!

    1. Hey Todd, we’re actually selecting those coffees now. I do see a few Masha samples on the list! You can expect those to be spelled out by the next outlook.

      Cheers,
      Dan

    1. It varies by origin. If you click on a coffee in the store and then click “specs” you can see the bag size. Typically 60 kg – 70kg (132 lb – 154 lb).

  2. Looking forward to the Laos Paksong Hills being available soon, will these be offered on Coffee Shrub and if so, will 20# option be available?
    Another Thank You to Sweet Maria’s Team for the exceptional coffee offerings!

    1. Hey Kent, thanks for saying that. We do our best! We hope to make all three variety separations from Laos available the week of 8/4. 20# will be available on Sweet Maria’s, but not Shrub for this one. We will have 50# bags though. Hope that helps.

      Best,
      Dan

  3. I’m so excited for Aug-Sept!!!! So much Ethiopian arriving. Ethiopian coffee is my favorite. Especially Hambela Goro

    1. Us too! Goro is cupping super strong, too. I just checked the ETA and it’s slated to land last week Aug. We hope to have it available mid-Sept.

  4. Any idea if the Ethiopian natural Dari kidame will come back? I believe it’s a Guji coffee. One of the best I’ve had. Have yet to have anything that is comparable

    1. The lots from Dari haven’t been as impressive lately, but this area is in Hambela Wamena district. We have other coffees from this area you might really like. In fact the first container from new crop is landing with coffees from Hambela and Kercha, which is the Kebele (county) right beside it. So they are all clustered in the same area. Hopefully you will find something there that works for you as well as Dari did.

  5. This list is great! Thanks for sharing it. I’m really looking forward to more Rwanda Nyamasheke Gitwe. That made excellent cappuccinos in the last batch I had.

  6. Hi! Looks like a good lineup. I’m only seeing one offering from Yemen… I thought I’d seen on an earlier outlook that the Yemen Mokha Sanani was making a comeback. Is it still on the horizon?

  7. I am curious if you have the pricing and tasting notes for the Ethiopia Dry Process Benti Nenka available yet. I was about to place an order for the Ethiopia Dry Process Hambela Buliye (which sounds amazing!) but was hoping to compare the two before moving forward. Thanks!

  8. Hi, any upcoming colombian inza rio paez? I have been drinking it for 3 years and my supply is running out soon.

    1. Hey Mo, unfortunately it looks like you just missed it. We had it on the site through June and July, when it sold out. I looked around the warehouse to see if we had any straggler 1lb bags around but couldn’t find any. We do have another, different Colombia Inza lot that is very low stock on the website now and another that may pop up soon. Not seeing too much else on the horizon. Wish I had better news.

    2. Hey Mo, just a few more details about Rio Paez, and Inza coffee generally. Like Jarrett pointed out, we don’t have another lot with that name on the way. We do have a lot from Vereda Belen, a village where we source a lot of the coffee lots that go into Rio Paez. It’s not yet on the schedule, but I plan to squeeze it in around mid-September. We’re also building a container from Colombia right now, but unfortunately not a lot of Inzá coffee at the moment. The main harvest isn’t until closer to the end of the year. There will be a 20ish bag blend that may come in under the “Rio Paez” name, but we need to cup the rest of the offer samples first. The other name possibility would be “Veredas Vecinas”, which would be a great replacement if you catch it on the site. Look for those in early November.

      Hope that helps!

      Dan

  9. Hello Sweet Maria’s
    Purchased Guatemala Antigua Hunapu May of 2024, I’m not seeing any on your outlook. [ appreciate having this available]Any for 2025? if not, what would be another option . Thanks again for all your doing!

    1. Hi Kent, we do have one 15 bag lot from Hunapu, “Ciudad Vieja”, that will likely launch late September, early October. You’re in luck though, as most of the Guatemala’s currently on the site are great replacements. Specifically, La Folie, Pulcal, and Cabrejo, are all from the same folks we source the Hunapu coffees from, and while single estate lots, they have a very similar profile to the Hunapu coffees. If I had to pick one, I’d say try Cabrejo and see how it compares. You can find all three here.

      Hope that helps get you through til we launch Hunapu later this year!

      Best,
      Dan

  10. Question about how to interpret the list. The launch date seems to be the date that the coffee will be available on the site to order. The incoming coffee arrival dates are the dates you anticipate taking possession of the coffee? Is there generally about a one month lag after arrival date to launch date, or availability on the site? Looking at a significant number of Ethiopians that were supposed to be coming in, their ETA was in the past week, would we be looking for those to be available mid September? Of course that’s just an estimate based conditions available to you at the time, but what would be a good rule of them to use between arrival date and launch date? Thank you.

    1. Hey Guy, your assessment is mostly correct. The ETA is when the coffee is scheduled to physically arrive at the Port. Turnarounds vary based on a few things. Right now it’s taking around 2 weeks from ETA for a coffee container to be moved and processed at the Annex storage facility in Alameda. At that point we can start taking the coffee, however, the timing of that depends on how soon we need it, and how much space we have in our warehouse! We can only sell coffees that we physically have onsite, and unfortunately our warehouse isn’t large enough to store our entire back-stock. That means that at any given time, we might have 50+ coffees at the Annex waiting in the proverbial queue. It can be confusing seeing coffees drop off the Incoming Coffees list, which is part of the reason I decided to post a Launch Schedule as well. Just keep in mind that it only covers a 4-8 weeks out, and there are a lot more coffees at the Annex waiting to be added to the schedule.

      Hopefully that answers your question. You can always reach out to us to check on the status of a particular coffee lot or origin!

      Best,
      Dan

  11. Wow! I was excited to get some Guatemala Cabrejo or Inteligente from you, as I remember seeing it mentioned in a recent email. Is it really all gone already? Are you planning to make more available soon?

    1. Hey Dennis, unfortunately we sold through the initial launch of both Pulcal Inteligente and Cabrejo. We do have 100-200# of each on deck to be relaunched in the next 1-2 weeks, but that’s it for the year. There was a small harvest in Antigua, and we just weren’t offered the volumes from some of these estates that we’re used to seeing. On the bright side, we have a couple excellent lots from the same family we buy those two from, Hunapu Ciudad Vieja, and Pavon. I find these share some similar cup features.

      Any chance you receive our newsletters? That’s the best place to monitor the launches as they happen (weekly). You can sign up at the bottom of our homepage.

      Sorry to disappoint, but hopefully that info helps.

      Best,
      Dan

  12. Any word on Peruvians? Just noticed that there are no Peruvian’s available or on the incoming list, so didn’t know if they were a long-standing victim to the tariff situation or just unknown at this time.

    Thanks!

    1. Hi Kristine,

      Last harvest was small, and we had less coffee to offer. The good news is this year is looking good for our normal volumes, and we’re actually just starting to make selections from the new crop. We’re shooting to have new offers before the end of the year.

      Thanks!
      Dan

  13. Hi Dan,
    I messaged you in July regarding Ethiopia Hambela Goro and you mentioned that hopefully it would be released mid September. I reached out via IG to get a status update, and I was told that there is variability to the names year over year. I’ve been very mindful with all your drops, and I dont recall seeing Hambela Goro or or if it was renamed I dont recall seing a similar cupping description as Hambela Goro. I really hope I didn’t miss out because of a rename as this is my favorite coffee, and ive been eagerly waiting for its release.

    1. Hey James, that’s correct. We try to use the same names every year, but variability does occur if it suits us. In this case, I overlooked that we do still have the lot of Dry Process Hambela Goro from the same supplier as what you bought last year, just not available to us yet. Hopefully we’ll have it by late Nov, or Dec, but can’t promise that timeline as we have more Ethiopia than we can list over the next two months. I can confirm you didn’t miss it.

      A point of clarity on the name; Hambela Wamena is the name of the Woreda, and Goro is the name of the mill and town. There are a few Goro mills all buying from the same area/farmers, so the naming convention can get a bit confusing. But you can expect similar qualities from other “Dry Process Goro” coffees, even without Hambela in the name. We have two dry process Goro coffees this year, Dry Process Guji Goro being the other.

      Hope that helps.

      Best,
      Dan

  14. Hi, do you have an idea of when the Ethiopia Dry Process Chelbesa Danche will be added to the site? The washed version from a few years ago was one of my all time favorites. Looking forward to this one.
    Thanks,
    Jon

    1. Hey Jon, yes. We actually have dry process Chelbesa scheduled for week after next. This year’s coffee is very nice!

      -D

  15. Wondering when you will get any of the Colombian Chiroso varieties in, and the Ethiopian dambe Uddo–wonderful coffees – also nothing on the horizon for Burundi—

    I need a new fan switch for my popper-how can I get one?

    1. Hey Gary, good timing. We have Chiroso from Edward Sandoval scheduled for the middle of December. We also have one lot of Dambi Uddo that will likely launch in January. Burundi’s are shipping now and should be in Oakland sometime in January if all goes well.

      Shoot us an email about the popper fan at [email protected]. Be sure to include any specifics about what’s going on with your roaster and we’ll do our best to get you sorted!

      Best,
      Dan

  16. Dan,
    Thanks so much for the green update–my brother and I will look forward to the Dambi uddo(and me anticipating the Chiroso).
    I’ll send to ‘info’ as requested about the popper fan knob(but that’s where I sent the first question about the knob)-
    it’s loose, sometimes not going between high and low – can’t find a set screw that holds the knob on, so guess it might be a press-on type of knob–that has worn

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